Forest fires in Caatinga: Risk modeling and priority areas for prevention

Abstract

Fire occurrences have recently been increasing worldwide. The Caatinga is an exclusively Brazilian biome, and although it has been considered independent of fire, it has been gaining prominence in terms of fire occurrences, mainly due to the arid climate and human activities. Thus, the objective of this study was to propose a forest fire risk zoning for the Caatinga Biome considering its environmental and social characteristics, as well as to define priority regions where forest fire prevention is essential for preserving Caatinga biodiversity based on forest fire risk, fire history and vegetation type. The use of Fuzzy Logic associated with the Analytical Hierarchy Process technique enabled accurate risk modeling for the biome with 96.6 % assertiveness, classifying the biome area as high-risk for the occurrence of forest fires. Regarding location, the northern and western portions, with emphasis on the limits with the Cerrado Biome, were the regions where the model indicated a very high risk of fire. Vegetation located on private properties generally has a greater need for protection (92.02 %) due to fragmentation and proximity to agricultural activities. Conservation units and indigenous lands encompassed 7.98 % of the areas where forest fire prevention measures should be adopted, especially for the sustainable use category, such as Environmental Preservation Areas. Piauí, Bahia and Ceará states had the greatest delimited area representation of the greatest need for fire prevention activities and conservation of local biodiversity. These results indicate that monitoring and training measures for farmers should be implemented to prevent ecosystem losses due to forest fires.