Agent-Based Spatial Dynamic Modeling of Diatraea saccharalis and the Natural Parasites Cotesia flavipes and Trichogramma galloi in Sugarcane Crops

Abstract

In recent years, sugarcane production areas in Brazil have experienced a slower evolution in productivity, and one of the reasons for this is related to the increase in phytosanitary problems, such as the presence of pests. Nevertheless, limited attention has been paid to the development of tools for simulating the spatial dynamics of pests, including their impact on production. This study aims to simulate the potential population growth and dispersal of Diatraea saccharalis (sugarcane borer) in sugarcane crop fields and its estimated impacts on this crop production and to simulate biological control strategies. We developed an agent-based model to simulate the pest population and its dispersal in a one-hectare sugarcane crop field in Pederneiras, São Paulo, Brazil, delimited with the aid of satellite imagery, considering two scenarios: the first without biological control and the second with biological control using the parasites Trichogramma galloi and Cotesia flavipes. The model was developed using the NetLogo 6.3.0 software. The results indicate that the model accurately reproduced the infestation rates reported in the literature. Additionally, it provided insights into expected pest dispersal, potential production losses, and how the use of T. galloi in association with C. flavipes could mitigate production losses. We believe that the model can be used to simulate different biological control strategies and the implementation of integrated pest management (IPM) to achieve adequate control levels and greater productivity in sugarcane production.