Spatio-temporal assessment of extreme precipitation events in southeastern Brazil

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation in southeast Brazil (São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo) between 1981 and 2020, using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The region, which plays a vital role in Brazil’s economy and houses 80 million people, has been increasingly affected by extreme weather events. The analysis examines seasonal variability and changes in precipitation patterns, revealing a significant decrease in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, particularly during autumn and winter. These findings highlight shifting trends in precipitation extremes, providing valuable insights into the region’s evolving climate dynamics.