Analysis of the distribution, quality and factors associated with urban forest remnants in a medium-sized city in Brazil

Ecosystem services in urban areas are influenced by the quality of remaining forests, contributing to urban recreation, biodiversity, and water infiltration, among other benefits. Given the scarcity of research on forest remnants in medium and small cities, this study aimed to evaluate the quality of forest remnants in the city of Viçosa, their distribution and the factors that shape them in the urban landscape. To do this, we used the Environmental Quality Index of Forest Remnants (IQrem) to evaluate forest cover and spatial autocorrelation indices. We performed statistical correlation analyzes and employed multiple and partial linear regression models using environmental, socioeconomic, and urban infrastructure variables. The results revealed that high-quality forest fragments are mainly associated with the university campus of Viçosa, the São Bartolomeu Environmental Protection Area (APA São Bartolomeu) and peri-urban neighborhoods such as Silvestre, Zig Zag, Santo Antônio, among others. On the other hand, central and low-income neighborhoods are linked to forest fragments with low IQrem, including Nova Viçosa, Fátima, Centro, Nova Era, and so on. The main variables associated with IQrem included population density, road density, urban and pasture coverage, and distance from the central region. The most concise explanatory model was responsible for 65% of the IQrem variation and was negatively correlated with road density, urban coverage, and pasture. This study provides a basis for urban management in Viçosa, identifying regions that lack the benefits of urban forests and offers insights for the municipal master plan. The proposed methodology is innovative and has potential for application in other small to large cities.