Dinâmica de transmissão da dengue considerando a influência da temperatura e precipitação
Carregando...
Data
2021-12-10
Autores
Almeida, Gabriela Colovati de [UNESP]
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A dengue, a chikungunya, a zika e a febre amarela tornaram-se doenças notáveis em todo o mundo por afetar milhões de pessoas. Nas últimas décadas, a incidência global dessas doenças infecciosas transmitidas por vetores, cresceu drasticamente, desafiando os programas de saúde pública no processo de tomada de decisão para o controle e fornecimento de novos métodos em resposta ao surgimento de novas infecções. O desenvolvimento e proliferação dessas enfermidades são acentuadas pelas viagens, comércio global, avanço da globalização, falta de serviços de saneamento básico e de mudanças climáticas. Este trabalho propõe um modelo matemático de sistema de EDO’s que descreve a dinâmica de propagação do vírus da dengue, disseminado por mosquitos do gênero Aedes, através da interação das populações de humanos e mosquitos, considerando como diferencial a influência da temperatura e a precipitação como fatores ambientais de interesse para analisar o crescimento populacional do mosquito e, consequentemente, a dispersão da doença. Diante disso, propõe-se ainda, um modelo de otimização para determinar estratégias de controle ótimo para a fase aquática e terrestre do mosquito, visando minimizar a população de humanos infectados e evitar novos surtos desta doença. Simulações computacionais para os modelos propostos foram realizadas, considerando diferentes cenários, a fim de mostrar a aplicabilidade da metodologia proposta. Os resultados numéricos mostraram que considerar condições climáticas na capacidade suporte na fase aquática do mosquito pode melhorar potencialmente o modelo matemático como ferramenta para descrever o problema real de transmissão do vírus da dengue.
Dengue, chikungunya, zika and yellow fever became notable diseases all over the world for affecting millions of people. In the last few decades, the global incidence of these vector-borne infectious diseases has grown dramatically, challen-ging public health programs in the decision making programs for the control and supply of new methods responding to the onset of new infections. The development and spread of these diseases are accentuated by trips, global commerce, globalization advances, lack of basic water treatment and climatic changes. This work proposes a mathematical model of an EDO’s system that describes the spread dynamics of the spread of the dengue virus, disseminated by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes, through the interaction of human and mosquito populations, considering the influence of temperature and precipitation as differential factors of interest to analyze the mosquito populational growth and, consequently, the disease spread. Therefore, an optimization model is proposed to determine optimal control strategies for the aquatic and terrestrial phase of the mosquito, aiming to minimize the population of infected humans and avoid new outbreaks of this disease. Computer simulations for the proposed models were carried out, considering differents cenarios, in order to present the proposed methodology applicability. Numerical results showed that considering climatic conditions in the carring capacity in the aquatic phase of the mosquito can potentially improve the mathematical model as a tool to describe the real problem of transport.
Dengue, chikungunya, zika and yellow fever became notable diseases all over the world for affecting millions of people. In the last few decades, the global incidence of these vector-borne infectious diseases has grown dramatically, challen-ging public health programs in the decision making programs for the control and supply of new methods responding to the onset of new infections. The development and spread of these diseases are accentuated by trips, global commerce, globalization advances, lack of basic water treatment and climatic changes. This work proposes a mathematical model of an EDO’s system that describes the spread dynamics of the spread of the dengue virus, disseminated by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes, through the interaction of human and mosquito populations, considering the influence of temperature and precipitation as differential factors of interest to analyze the mosquito populational growth and, consequently, the disease spread. Therefore, an optimization model is proposed to determine optimal control strategies for the aquatic and terrestrial phase of the mosquito, aiming to minimize the population of infected humans and avoid new outbreaks of this disease. Computer simulations for the proposed models were carried out, considering differents cenarios, in order to present the proposed methodology applicability. Numerical results showed that considering climatic conditions in the carring capacity in the aquatic phase of the mosquito can potentially improve the mathematical model as a tool to describe the real problem of transport.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Matemática aplicada, Epidemiologia, Dengue, Fatores climáticos