Impacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasil

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dc.contributor.authorMoraes, Willian Bucker [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorde Jesus Junior, Waldir Cintra
dc.contributor.authorCecílio, Roberto Avelino
dc.contributor.authorMafia, Reginaldo Gonçalves
dc.contributor.authorMoraes, Wanderson Bucker
dc.contributor.authorCosmi, Fernando Carrara
dc.contributor.authorValadares Junior, Ranolfo
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.contributor.institutionCenter for Research and Technology
dc.date.accessioned2018-12-11T16:58:11Z
dc.date.available2018-12-11T16:58:11Z
dc.date.issued2014-01-01
dc.description.abstractRust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 °C, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); ii) medium risk (18 ≤ T ≤ 25 °C and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 °C and RH ≥ 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 °C and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.en
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Plant Production, Plant-Health Protection Sector, College of Agronomical Science (FCA), UNESP-Univ Estadual Paulista, Caixa Postal 237, Botucatu, SP 18610-307
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Plant Production, Agricultural Science Center, Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES), 29500-000, Alegre, ES
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Forestry, Agricultural Science Center, UFES, Alegre, ES
dc.description.affiliationCenter for Research and Technology, FIBRIA S.A., 29197-900, Aracruz, ES
dc.description.affiliationUnespDepartment of Plant Production, Plant-Health Protection Sector, College of Agronomical Science (FCA), UNESP-Univ Estadual Paulista, Caixa Postal 237, Botucatu, SP 18610-307
dc.format.extent114-122
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-5405/1945
dc.identifier.citationSumma Phytopathologica, v. 40, n. 2, p. 114-122, 2014.
dc.identifier.doi10.1590/0100-5405/1945
dc.identifier.fileS0100-54052014000200002.pdf
dc.identifier.issn0100-5405
dc.identifier.scieloS0100-54052014000200002
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84940224890
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/172026
dc.language.isoeng
dc.language.isopor
dc.relation.ispartofSumma Phytopathologica
dc.relation.ispartofsjr0,258
dc.rights.accessRightsAcesso aberto
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectEucalyptus
dc.subjectGlobal climate changes
dc.subjectPredicting and alert system
dc.subjectPuccinia psidii
dc.titleImpacto potencial das mudanças cliḿticas globais na distribuição espacial de áreas de risco para ocorrência da ferrugem do eucalipto no Brasilpt
dc.title.alternativePotential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazilen
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.departmentProdução e Melhoramento Vegetal - FCApt

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Botucatu - FCA - Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas