Statistical Modeling of Deaths from COVID-19 Influenced by Social Isolation in Latin American Countries

Página do item simplificado
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Rafael Andre da [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Luiz Philipe de Souza
dc.contributor.authorLeite, Jean Michel Rocha Sampaio
dc.contributor.authorTiraboschi, Fernanda Assunção
dc.contributor.authorValente, Thiago Maciel
dc.contributor.authorRoda, Vinicius Moraes de Paiva
dc.contributor.authorSanchez, Jeniffer Johana Duarte
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Fortaleza (UNIFOR)
dc.contributor.institutionFederal University of Ceara (UFC)
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-01T19:59:09Z
dc.date.available2023-03-01T19:59:09Z
dc.date.issued2022-05-01
dc.description.abstractSocial isolation is extremely important to minimize the effects of a pandemic. Latin American countries have similar socioeconomic characteristics and health system infrastructures. These countries face difficulties in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, and some of them have very high death rates. The government stringency index (GSI) of 12 Latin American countries was gathered from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project. The GSI is calculated by considering nine social distancing and isolation measures. Population data from the United Nations Population Fund and number-of-deaths data were collected from the dashboard of the WHO. We performed an analysis of the data collected from March through December 2020 using a mixed linear model. Peru, Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Argentina, and Ecuador had the highest death rates, with an increasing trend over time. Suriname, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Guyana had the lowest death rates, and these rates remained steady. The GSI in most countries followed the same pattern during the months analyzed. In other words, high indices at the beginning of the pandemic and lower indices in the latter months, whereas the number of deaths increased during the entire period. Almost no country kept its GSI high for a long time, especially from October to December. Time and GSI, as well as their interaction, were highly significant. As their interaction increases, the death rate decreases. In conclusion, a greater GSI at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decrease in the number of deaths over time in Latin American countries.en
dc.description.affiliationLife Systems Biology Graduate Program Institute of Biomedical Sciences University of São Paulo (ICB/USP), SP
dc.description.affiliationBiosciences Graduate Program Intitute of Biosciences Letters and Exact Sciences São Paulo State University (IBILCE/UNESP), São Jose SP do Rio Preto
dc.description.affiliationStructural and Functional Biology Graduate Program Paulista School of Medicine Federal University of Sao Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), SP
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Physiotherapy University of Fortaleza (UNIFOR), CE
dc.description.affiliationSchool of Public Health University of São Paulo (FSP/USP), SP
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Medicine University of Fortaleza (UNIFOR), CE
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Statistics and Applied Math Federal University of Ceara (UFC), CE
dc.description.affiliationUnespBiosciences Graduate Program Intitute of Biosciences Letters and Exact Sciences São Paulo State University (IBILCE/UNESP), São Jose SP do Rio Preto
dc.format.extent1486-1490
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.21-0217
dc.identifier.citationAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, v. 106, n. 5, p. 1486-1490, 2022.
dc.identifier.doi10.4269/ajtmh.21-0217
dc.identifier.issn1476-1645
dc.identifier.issn0002-9637
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85129946643
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/240048
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.sourceScopus
dc.titleStatistical Modeling of Deaths from COVID-19 Influenced by Social Isolation in Latin American Countriesen
dc.typeArtigo

Arquivos

Coleções

Artigos