Spatial-Temporal Model for Demand Estimation Due to Appliances with High Energy Consumption

Abstract

The residential load of existing consumers can be increased significantly due to large-scale purchase of household appliances with high-energy consumption; consequently, changing the expansion plans of electrical distribution networks. In this paper, a spatial-temporal model is proposed to estimate the load growth of distribution transformers owed for this kind of electrical appliances. In order to determine the location of inhabitants interested in buying these appliances, the proposed approach includes the socioeconomic characteristics of the consumers in a spatial form. After that, the number of appliances added each year is computed using a logistic regression. The results are the residential load curves of distribution transformers, including the additional yearly demand of the new appliances. These curves provide valuable information regarding the distribution network expansion planning.