Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study

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dc.contributor.authorSpinoni, Jonathan
dc.contributor.authorBarbosa, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorBucchignani, Edoardo
dc.contributor.authorCassano, John
dc.contributor.authorCavazos, Tereza
dc.contributor.authorCescatti, Alessandro
dc.contributor.authorChristensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
dc.contributor.authorChristensen, Ole Bøssing
dc.contributor.authorCoppola, Erika
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Jason
dc.contributor.authorForzieri, Giovanni
dc.contributor.authorGeyer, Beate
dc.contributor.authorGiorgi, Filippo
dc.contributor.authorJacob, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorKatzfey, Jack
dc.contributor.authorKoenigk, Torben
dc.contributor.authorLaprise, René
dc.contributor.authorLennard, Christopher John
dc.contributor.authorLevent Kurnaz, M.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Delei
dc.contributor.authorLlopart, Marta [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorMcCormick, Niall
dc.contributor.authorNaumann, Gustavo
dc.contributor.authorNikulin, Grigory
dc.contributor.authorOzturk, Tugba
dc.contributor.authorPanitz, Hans-Jürgen
dc.contributor.authorda Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
dc.contributor.authorSolman, Silvina Alicia
dc.contributor.authorSyktus, Jozef
dc.contributor.authorTangang, Fredolin
dc.contributor.authorTeichmann, Claas
dc.contributor.authorVautard, Robert
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Jürgen Valentin
dc.contributor.authorWinger, Katja
dc.contributor.authorZittis, George
dc.contributor.authorDosio, Alessandro
dc.contributor.institutionJoint Research Centre (JRC)
dc.contributor.institutionCentro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC Foundation—REMHI Division)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Colorado
dc.contributor.institutionCentro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)
dc.contributor.institutionNiels Bohr Institute (NBI)
dc.contributor.institutionDanish Meteorological Institute
dc.contributor.institutionAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of New South Wales
dc.contributor.institutionInstitute of Coastal Research
dc.contributor.institutionClimate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C)
dc.contributor.institutionHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
dc.contributor.institutionCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research
dc.contributor.institutionRossby Centre
dc.contributor.institutionUniversité du Quebec à Montréal (UQAM)
dc.contributor.institutionClimate System Analysis Group (CSAG)
dc.contributor.institutionBogazici University
dc.contributor.institutionChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.contributor.institutionIsik University
dc.contributor.institutionKarlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidad de Buenos Aires
dc.contributor.institutionCentro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)
dc.contributor.institutionThe University of Queensland
dc.contributor.institutionThe National University of Malaysia (UKM)
dc.contributor.institutionLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE)
dc.contributor.institutionNorwegian Research Centre AS
dc.contributor.institutionCentro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA)
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-29T08:31:27Z
dc.date.available2022-04-29T08:31:27Z
dc.date.issued2021-01-01
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4°C, approximately 2·106 km2 of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5·106 km2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17·106 km2 of forests (49%), 6·106 km2 of pastures (78%), and 12·106 km2 of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.en
dc.description.affiliationEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)
dc.description.affiliationCentro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC Foundation—REMHI Division)
dc.description.affiliationCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Snow and Ice Data Center University of Colorado
dc.description.affiliationCentro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)
dc.description.affiliationUniversity of Copenhagen Niels Bohr Institute (NBI)
dc.description.affiliationDanish Meteorological Institute
dc.description.affiliationAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
dc.description.affiliationFaculty of Science University of New South Wales
dc.description.affiliationHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG) Institute of Coastal Research
dc.description.affiliationThe Cyprus Institute (CyI) Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C)
dc.description.affiliationClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
dc.description.affiliationCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research
dc.description.affiliationSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Rossby Centre
dc.description.affiliationDépartement des Sciences de la Terre et de l'Atmosphère Université du Quebec à Montréal (UQAM)
dc.description.affiliationUniversity of Cape Town Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG)
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Physics Faculty of Arts and Sciences Bogazici University
dc.description.affiliationCenter for Climate Change and Policy Studies Bogazici University
dc.description.affiliationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
dc.description.affiliationSão Paulo State University and Bauru Meteorological Centre (IPMet/UNESP)
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Physics Faculty of Arts and Sciences Isik University
dc.description.affiliationInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
dc.description.affiliationDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo
dc.description.affiliationFacultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO-FCEN-UBA) Universidad de Buenos Aires
dc.description.affiliationUniversidad de Buenos Aires Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)
dc.description.affiliationSchool of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Earth Sciences and Environment The National University of Malaysia (UKM)
dc.description.affiliationNational Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE)
dc.description.affiliationNORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS
dc.description.affiliationCentro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA)
dc.description.affiliationUnespSão Paulo State University and Bauru Meteorological Centre (IPMet/UNESP)
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7302
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal of Climatology.
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.7302
dc.identifier.issn1097-0088
dc.identifier.issn0899-8418
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85111738749
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/229258
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Climatology
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectclimate projections
dc.subjectCORDEX
dc.subjectdrought
dc.subjectglobal warming levels
dc.subjectland-use
dc.subjectpopulation
dc.subjectsocioeconomic scenarios
dc.titleGlobal exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based studyen
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-8903-085X[1]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0003-3097-9021[5]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0003-2051-743X[16]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-8767-5099[23]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0001-8598-8596[25]
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-6839-5622[35]

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