Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach

Página do item simplificado
dc.contributor.authorReboita, Michelle Simões
dc.contributor.authorReale, Marco
dc.contributor.authorda Rocha, Rosmeri P.
dc.contributor.authorGiorgi, Filippo
dc.contributor.authorGiuliani, Graziano
dc.contributor.authorCoppola, Erika
dc.contributor.authorNino, Rosa Beatriz Luna
dc.contributor.authorLlopart, Marta [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorTorres, Jose Abraham
dc.contributor.authorCavazos, Tereza
dc.contributor.institutionUNIFEI
dc.contributor.institutionThe Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs
dc.contributor.institutionIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)
dc.contributor.institutionCICESE
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.contributor.institutionIPMet
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-12T02:24:51Z
dc.date.available2020-12-12T02:24:51Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-01
dc.description.abstractChanges in the characteristics of austral winter (June–July–August) synoptic activity in three domains (Africa, Australia and South America) of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere projected with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) are presented. The model is nested in three global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The model grid spacing is 25 km and the simulations cover the period 1970–2100. Synoptic activity is analyzed using both Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches. The Eulerian analysis shows an increase of the synoptic activity south of 40° S in the RegCM4 and GCMs ensembles for the future (2080–2099) compared to the present (1995–2014), but this signal does not necessarily indicate an increase in the cyclone frequency since it includes cyclonic and anticyclonic features. The Lagrangian analysis, however, indicates a decrease in the frequency of cyclones, with a positive tendency towards stronger systems, although the latter is not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Lifetime, traveled distance and mean speed of the cyclones do not present statistically significant changes in the future climate. On the other hand, a significant increase in both intensity and extension of areas affected by precipitation associated with cyclones is found. As a consequence, there is a statistically significant trend of individual cyclones to produce more rainfall in the future.en
dc.description.affiliationFederal University of Itajubá UNIFEI
dc.description.affiliationEarth System Physics ESP The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physiscs
dc.description.affiliationIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale OGS
dc.description.affiliationDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo USP
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Physical Oceanography Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education CICESE
dc.description.affiliationUniversidade Estadual Paulista UNESP
dc.description.affiliationCentro de Meteorologia de Bauru IPMet
dc.description.affiliationUnespUniversidade Estadual Paulista UNESP
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z
dc.identifier.citationClimate Dynamics.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z
dc.identifier.issn1432-0894
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85085879385
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/201133
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofClimate Dynamics
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectCORDEX-CORE
dc.subjectCyclone tracking scheme
dc.subjectCyclones
dc.subjectExtratropical southern hemisphere
dc.subjectPrecipitation
dc.subjectRegCM4
dc.titleFuture changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approachen
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-1734-2395[1]

Arquivos

Coleções

Artigos - Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet) - Bauru