The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction?

dc.contributor.authorMeireles, Ricardo C.
dc.contributor.authorLopes, Leonardo E.
dc.contributor.authorBrito, Gustavo R. [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorSolar, Ricardo
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-29T12:56:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-29T11:48:24Z
dc.date.available2023-07-29T12:56:12Z
dc.date.available2023-07-29T11:48:24Z
dc.date.issued2023-02-01
dc.description.abstractGlobal changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner Geositta poeciloptera is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS = 0.77 and ROC = 0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy-shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention.en
dc.description.affiliationPós-graduação em Ecologia Conservação e Manejo da Vida Silvestre Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.description.affiliationLaboratório de Biologia Animal Instituto de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde Universidade Federal de Viçosa
dc.description.affiliationPós-graduação em Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista
dc.description.affiliationDepartamento de Genética Ecologia e Evolução Instituto de Ciências Biológicas Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Posgrad Ecol Conservacao & Manejo Vida Silvestre, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Vicosa, Inst Ciencias Biol & Saude, Lab Biol Anim, Florestal, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Estadual Paulista, Posgrad Biociencias, Assis, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Inst Ciencias Biol, Dept Genet Ecol & Evolucao, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Minas Gerais, Inst Ciencias Biol, Dept Genet Ecol & Evolucao, Av Pres Antonio Carlos 6627, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUnespPós-graduação em Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista
dc.description.affiliationUnespUniv Estadual Paulista, Posgrad Biociencias, Assis, Brazil
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
dc.description.sponsorshipCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais
dc.description.sponsorshipCoordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel- Brazil
dc.description.sponsorshipPesquisa & Desenvolvimento of Agencia Nacional de Energia Eletrica
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCNPq: 316960/2021-7
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCNPq: 305739/2019-0
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais: GT599
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCoordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel- Brazil: 001
dc.format.extent12
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9802
dc.identifier.citationEcology and Evolution, v. 13, n. 2, 2023.
dc.identifier.citationEcology and Evolution. Hoboken: Wiley, v. 13, n. 2, 12 p., 2023.
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ece3.9802
dc.identifier.issn2045-7758
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85149908092
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/250379
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000933280100001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell
dc.relation.ispartofEcology and Evolution
dc.sourceScopus
dc.sourceWeb of Science
dc.subjectCampo Miner
dc.subjectclimate changes
dc.subjectecological niche modeling
dc.subjectland use changes
dc.subjectthreatened species
dc.titleThe future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: a path to extinction?en
dc.typeArtigo
dcterms.licensehttp://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-406071.html
dcterms.rightsHolderWiley-Blackwell
unesp.author.orcid0000-0001-5627-4017[4]

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