Influence of global warming on the trajectories and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract

Extratropical cyclones and your preferred range of operation “storm tracks” play a key role in the global energy system, especially in regions of high latitudes. In this way, the current climatology of these systems are evaluated and its possible changes under situations of increased global temperature and CO2 concentrations are analysed from the global coupled climate model European Centre/Hamburg Model versão 5 / Max Planck Institute-Ocean Model (ECHAM-5-MPI-OM). So, with the intention of obtaining greater precision of intensity and spatial displacement of extratropical cyclones, evaluate important variables of climate energy component, as the flow of heat sensitive and dominant patterns of kinetic energy. To future conditions, the results obtained show that the trajectories of ST may suffer modifications in the distribution, moving South towards the pole. The results also indicate that variations in sea ice cover and sea surface temperature are fundamental in the distribution of the cyclonic activity in future climate conditions.