Alternative scenario simulation for urban sprawl based on population dynamics: A methodological proposal

Abstract

The urban sprawl implies in the reduction of rural production areas and increases the pressure on the natural spaces. Hence, if the urbanization does not occur properly, it can compromise sanitary conditions, biodiversity, resources and environmental services. This paper aims at presenting a mathematical model to support urban sprawl based on population dynamics, applied as a case study in the Economic Hub of the Metropolitan Region of Sorocaba - MRS. The materials corresponded to census data and urban planning parameters of the applicable law. As a result, it was found that the urban extension of Sorocaba is oversized, and that the maintenance of the current conditions and guidelines will have critical consequences, requiring a change in local politics. We conclude that the proposed model can support strategic decisions, preventing problems related to disordered growth.