Epidemic Modeling in Satellite Towns and Interconnected Cities: Data-Driven Simulation and Real-World Lockdown Validation

Abstract

Understanding the effectiveness of different quarantine strategies is crucial for controlling the spread of COVID-19, particularly in regions with limited data. This study presents a SCIRD-inspired model to simulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in medium-sized cities and their surrounding satellite towns. Unlike previous works that focus primarily on large urban centers or homogeneous populations, our approach incorporates intercity mobility and evaluates the impact of spatially differentiated interventions. By analyzing lockdown strategies implemented during the first year of the pandemic, we demonstrate that short, localized lockdowns are highly effective in reducing virus propagation, while intermittent restrictions balance public health concerns with socioeconomic demands. A key contribution of this study is the validation of the epidemic model using real-world data from the 2021 lockdown that occurred in a medium-sized city, confirming its predictive accuracy and adaptability to different contexts. Additionally, we provide a detailed analysis of how mobility patterns between municipalities influence infection spread, offering a more comprehensive mathematical framework for decision-making. These findings advance the understanding of epidemic control in regions with sparse data and provide evidence-based insights to inform public health policies in similar contexts.