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Publicação:
Growth Rate and Acceleration Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Reveals the Effect of Public Health Measures in Real Time

dc.contributor.authorUtsunomiya, Yuri Tani [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorUtsunomiya, Adam Taiti Harth
dc.contributor.authorTorrecilha, Rafaela Beatriz Pintor
dc.contributor.authorPaulan, Silvana de Cássia
dc.contributor.authorMilanesi, Marco
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, José Fernando [UNESP]
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
dc.contributor.institutionInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Collaborating Centre on Animal Genomics and Bioinformatics
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-12T02:11:49Z
dc.date.available2020-12-12T02:11:49Z
dc.date.issued2020-05-22
dc.description.abstractBackground: Ending the COVID-19 pandemic is arguably one of the most prominent challenges in recent human history. Following closely the growth dynamics of the disease is one of the pillars toward achieving that goal. Objective: We aimed at developing a simple framework to facilitate the analysis of the growth rate (cases/day) and growth acceleration (cases/day2) of COVID-19 cases in real-time. Methods: The framework was built using the Moving Regression (MR) technique and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The dynamics of the pandemic was initially modeled via combinations of four different growth stages: lagging (beginning of the outbreak), exponential (rapid growth), deceleration (growth decay), and stationary (near zero growth). A fifth growth behavior, namely linear growth (constant growth above zero), was further introduced to add more flexibility to the framework. An R Shiny application was developed, which can be accessed at https://theguarani.com.br/ or downloaded from https://github.com/adamtaiti/SARS-CoV-2. The framework was applied to data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which comprised 3,722,128 cases reported worldwide as of May 8th 2020. Results: We found that the impact of public health measures on the prevalence of COVID-19 could be perceived in seemingly real-time by monitoring growth acceleration curves. Restriction to human mobility produced detectable decline in growth acceleration within 1 week, deceleration within ~2 weeks and near-stationary growth within ~6 weeks. Countries exhibiting different permutations of the five growth stages indicated that the evolution of COVID-19 prevalence is more complex and dynamic than previously appreciated. Conclusions: These results corroborate that mass social isolation is a highly effective measure against the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2, as previously suggested. Apart from the analysis of prevalence partitioned by country, the proposed framework is easily applicable to city, state, region and arbitrary territory data, serving as an asset to monitor the local behavior of COVID-19 cases.en
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Support Production and Animal Health School of Veterinary Medicine of Araçatuba São Paulo State University (Unesp)
dc.description.affiliationInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Collaborating Centre on Animal Genomics and Bioinformatics
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Reproduction School of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences São Paulo State University (Unesp)
dc.description.affiliationUnespDepartment of Support Production and Animal Health School of Veterinary Medicine of Araçatuba São Paulo State University (Unesp)
dc.description.affiliationUnespDepartment of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Reproduction School of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences São Paulo State University (Unesp)
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.00247
dc.identifier.citationFrontiers in Medicine, v. 7.
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fmed.2020.00247
dc.identifier.issn2296-858X
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85086763161
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/200629
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Medicine
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectcoronavirus
dc.subjectgrowth curve analysis
dc.subjectHidden Markov Model
dc.subjectmathematical modeling
dc.subjectmoving regression
dc.subjectsevere acute respiratory syndrome
dc.titleGrowth Rate and Acceleration Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Reveals the Effect of Public Health Measures in Real Timeen
dc.typeArtigo
dspace.entity.typePublication
unesp.campusUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária, Araçatubapt
unesp.departmentApoio, Produção e Saúde Animal - FMVApt

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