Análise temporal da ocorrência da anemia infecciosa equina no Brasil no período de 2005 a 2016
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2018-12-05
Autores
Costa, Ana Maria Paes Scott da
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A equideocultura possui grande importância econômica no Brasil, e a anemia infecciosa equina (AIE) representa ameaça para o crescimento do setor. Pouco se sabe sobre análise temporal da ocorrência da doença no Brasil, por isso este trabalho foi conduzido com o objetivo de investigar a frequência e distribuição da anemia infecciosa equina em todo o território brasileiro no período de 2005 a 2016, por meio das análises temporais do índice de morbidade, índice de eliminação de reagentes, razão entre o número de equídeos eliminados e o número de equídeos reagentes, índice de notificação de focos e índice de focos novos e antigos ao longo do período. Foi realizada uma análise de série temporal sobre AIE no período de 2005 a 2016, utilizando dois bancos de dados, o da OIE e o do MAPA. No Brasil, 2010 foi o ano que apresentou o menor índice de morbidade de AIE, com 100,9 casos por 100 mil cabeças, e 2009 apresentou o maior índice, com 159,1 por 100 mil cabeças, e a taxa de variação anual no período foi de -2,4% (-7,5% a 2,8%), revelando estabilidade desse indicador (P = 0,317). O índice de eliminação de reagentes por AIE no Brasil foi maior em 2010, com 62,7 por 100 mil cabeças, e menor em 2016, com 32,1. Durante todo o período estudado, a variação anual no país se mostrou estável, com valor de -6,1% (-18,2% a 7,8%) e valor de P não significativo (0,333). A razão entre o número de equídeos eliminados e o número de equídeos reagentes por 100 equídeos foi baixa em quase todas as UF’s e regiões. Os índices de notificação de focos no Brasil se apresentaram estáveis (P = 0,050) durante todo o período, com taxa de variação anual de -6,4% (-13,0 a 0,0). Os índices de focos novos e antigos nos anos de 2013, 2014, 2015 e 2016 sugerem crescimento em quase todos os estados. O programa é capaz de mapear a situação sanitária em determinadas circunstâncias delimitadas, mas para avançar seria necessário implementar mudanças na estratégia de ação de modo a alcançar melhores resultados no controle e na previsibilidade para uma possível erradicação da doença. Concluiu-se então que a frequência e distribuição da AIE entre 2005 e 2016 no Brasil permitiu caracterizar como estáveis em âmbito nacional os seguintes índices: índice de morbidade, índice de eliminação de reagentes, razão entre o número de equídeos eliminados e o número de equídeos reagentes e índice de notificação de focos; sugerindo uma estabilização do Programa Nacional de Sanidade Equina (PNSE) durante o período estudado.
Equideoculture has a great economic importance in Brazil, and equine the infectious anemia (EIA) poses as a threat to the growth of the horse market. Little is known about the time series analysis of the disease in Brazil, so this work was conducted with the objective to investigate the frequency and distribution of equine infectious anemia in Brazil from 2005 to 2016, by the time series analysis of morbidity index, elimination rate of positive animals, ratio between the number of dead equines and the number of testing positive equines, outbreak notification rates and indexes of new and old outbreaks. A time series analysis was carried out on EIA in the period 2005 to 2016, using OIE and MAPA databases. In Brazil, 2010 was the year with the lowest EIA morbidity index, with 100.9 cases per 100,000 equines, and 2009 had the highest index, with 159.1 per 100,000 equines, and the annual variation rate was -2.4% (-7.5% to 2.8%), showing stability of this indicator (P = 0.317). The elimination rate of positive animals for EIA in Brazil was higher in 2010, with 62.7 per 100 thousand equines, and lower in 2016, with 32.1. Throughout the study period, the annual variation in the country was stable, with a value of -6.1% (-18.2% to 7.8%) and a non-significant statistical difference was found (P = 0.333). The ratio between the number of dead equines and the number of reared equines per 100 equines was low in almost all FU's and regions. Outbreak notification rates in Brazil were stable (P = 0.050) throughout the period, with an average annual rate of -6.4% (-13.0 to 0.0). The indexes of new and old outbreaks in the years 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 suggest a growth in almost all states. The program can map the health situation in certain limited circumstances, and to advance it would be necessary to implement changes in the strategic action in order to achieve better results in the control and possible predictability eradication of the disease. It was concluded that the frequency and distribution of the EIA in Brazil between 2005 and 2016 allowed us to characterize the following index as being stable at the national level: morbidity index, elimination rate of positive animals, ratio between the number of dead equines and the number of testing positive equines and outbreak notification rates; suggesting a stabilization of the National Program of Equine Health (PNSE) during the studied period.
Equideoculture has a great economic importance in Brazil, and equine the infectious anemia (EIA) poses as a threat to the growth of the horse market. Little is known about the time series analysis of the disease in Brazil, so this work was conducted with the objective to investigate the frequency and distribution of equine infectious anemia in Brazil from 2005 to 2016, by the time series analysis of morbidity index, elimination rate of positive animals, ratio between the number of dead equines and the number of testing positive equines, outbreak notification rates and indexes of new and old outbreaks. A time series analysis was carried out on EIA in the period 2005 to 2016, using OIE and MAPA databases. In Brazil, 2010 was the year with the lowest EIA morbidity index, with 100.9 cases per 100,000 equines, and 2009 had the highest index, with 159.1 per 100,000 equines, and the annual variation rate was -2.4% (-7.5% to 2.8%), showing stability of this indicator (P = 0.317). The elimination rate of positive animals for EIA in Brazil was higher in 2010, with 62.7 per 100 thousand equines, and lower in 2016, with 32.1. Throughout the study period, the annual variation in the country was stable, with a value of -6.1% (-18.2% to 7.8%) and a non-significant statistical difference was found (P = 0.333). The ratio between the number of dead equines and the number of reared equines per 100 equines was low in almost all FU's and regions. Outbreak notification rates in Brazil were stable (P = 0.050) throughout the period, with an average annual rate of -6.4% (-13.0 to 0.0). The indexes of new and old outbreaks in the years 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 suggest a growth in almost all states. The program can map the health situation in certain limited circumstances, and to advance it would be necessary to implement changes in the strategic action in order to achieve better results in the control and possible predictability eradication of the disease. It was concluded that the frequency and distribution of the EIA in Brazil between 2005 and 2016 allowed us to characterize the following index as being stable at the national level: morbidity index, elimination rate of positive animals, ratio between the number of dead equines and the number of testing positive equines and outbreak notification rates; suggesting a stabilization of the National Program of Equine Health (PNSE) during the studied period.
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Palavras-chave
Anemia infecciosa equina, Epidemiologia, Estatística, Programa Nacional de Sanidade Equina, Análise temporal, Equideocultura, Equideoculture, Equine Infectious Anemia, Epidemiology, National Equine Sanitation Program, Statistic, Time series analysis