O poder pela força: análise da reforma militar russa e sua relação com o posicionamento internacional do país
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Data
2021-08-11
Autores
Almeida Neto, Getúlio Alves de
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
A pesquisa tem como objeto de análise a reforma militar da Rússia em curso desde outubro de 2008 e sua relação com o posicionamento do país no Sistema Internacional do século XXI. Como objetivo geral, a pesquisa se propõe a entender como o governo russo utiliza de sua capacidade militar como ferramenta de política externa. A hipótese principal é que o aparato militar é de uso instrumental para a execução da política externa do Kremlin, que ampara a defesa de seus interesses político-securitários no intuito de posicionar Moscou como um dos polos de poder a ser reconhecido pelas outras potências, permitindo sua participação no concerto global. A segunda hipótese é de que a necessidade de incrementar sua força como mecanismo de garantia da defesa de seus interesses se baseia na percepção de Moscou acerca de sua insegurança no contexto pós-Guerra Fria, marcada pela supremacia militar estadunidense e sua própria debilidade nesse quesito. A terceira hipótese é de que o aumento da capacidade militar russa não significa uma tendência de política imperialista de restauração formal do Estado soviético, tampouco uma disposição de enfrentamento direto com os Estados Unidos. A pesquisa é feita a partir da revisão da literatura especializada no assunto, constituída por livros, artigos científicos, relatórios de centros de pesquisa sobre assuntos militares e documentos oficiais de Defesa da Federação Russa. A análise é baseada no método hipotético-dedutivo e feita à luz da abordagem realista neoclássica das Relações Internacionais, pautada nos conceitos de unipolaridade de Wohlforth, e força, poder e potência segundo Raymond Aron. A pesquisa conclui que a política militar russa consiste em uma estratégia defensiva a partir da utilização de abordagens assimétricas em seu favor, que buscam impedir a ação da OTAN em regiões consideradas de interesse e influência da Rússia. Nesse sentido, a pesquisa propõe o entendimento da Rússia como uma potência defensiva, reativa e negativa. Essa asserção se dá a partir de um aparato militar suficientemente capacitado para não se submeter à imposição de vontades e interesses de outras potências e garantir a soberania doméstica do país a partir das possibilidades de atuação de Moscou no contexto internacional de assimetria de capacidades, característica da unipolaridade do Sistema Internacional do pós-Guerra Fria.
The research analyses the Russian military reform which has been taking place since October 2008 and its relation to the country’s position in the International System in the 21st Century. The main objective of this study is to understand how the Russian government makes use of its military capabilities as a foreign policy tool. The primary hypothesis is that Russian military apparatus is used by the Kremlin as an instrumental means in order to protect its political-security interests and to assure Moscow’s position as a pole of power in the International System which should be recognized by other great powers, thereby allowing its participation in the global political concert. The secondary hypothesis posits that the necessity of enhancing its military capabilities in order to guarantee the protection of its interests derives from Moscow's perception of insecurity since the outset of the post-Cold War period symbolized by the military supremacy of the United States and Russian debilities in this matter. The tertiary hypothesis is that this enhancement neither means that Russian government is advancing an imperialistic foreign policy towards the formal restoration of Soviet state nor is it willing to directly engage in a conflict with the United States. This research is based on literature review consisting mostly of books, scientific papers and reports made by research centers specialized on military affairs. Besides that, official Defense documents published by Russian Federation are utilized. The method of analysis is hypothetical-deductive and the Neoclassical Realism School of International Relations assumptions underpin the study. Specifically, the concepts of unipolarity according to Wohlforth and force and power as in Raymond Aron’s work are used. The investigation concludes that Russian military policy consists in a defensive strategy conducted by the utilization of asymmetrical approaches that aim to stall NATO’s action in geopolitical areas considered by Moscow as its zone of privileged interests and influence. Therefore, the study advances the argument that Russia should be understood as a defensive, reactive and negative power. This assertion assumes that Russian military is as sufficiently strong as it needs to be in order to guarantee its domestic sovereignty and to not be subjugated by other great power’s interests in the international context of post-Cold War, which features asymmetrical capabilities and the unipolarity, reducing Russian possibilities of action.
The research analyses the Russian military reform which has been taking place since October 2008 and its relation to the country’s position in the International System in the 21st Century. The main objective of this study is to understand how the Russian government makes use of its military capabilities as a foreign policy tool. The primary hypothesis is that Russian military apparatus is used by the Kremlin as an instrumental means in order to protect its political-security interests and to assure Moscow’s position as a pole of power in the International System which should be recognized by other great powers, thereby allowing its participation in the global political concert. The secondary hypothesis posits that the necessity of enhancing its military capabilities in order to guarantee the protection of its interests derives from Moscow's perception of insecurity since the outset of the post-Cold War period symbolized by the military supremacy of the United States and Russian debilities in this matter. The tertiary hypothesis is that this enhancement neither means that Russian government is advancing an imperialistic foreign policy towards the formal restoration of Soviet state nor is it willing to directly engage in a conflict with the United States. This research is based on literature review consisting mostly of books, scientific papers and reports made by research centers specialized on military affairs. Besides that, official Defense documents published by Russian Federation are utilized. The method of analysis is hypothetical-deductive and the Neoclassical Realism School of International Relations assumptions underpin the study. Specifically, the concepts of unipolarity according to Wohlforth and force and power as in Raymond Aron’s work are used. The investigation concludes that Russian military policy consists in a defensive strategy conducted by the utilization of asymmetrical approaches that aim to stall NATO’s action in geopolitical areas considered by Moscow as its zone of privileged interests and influence. Therefore, the study advances the argument that Russia should be understood as a defensive, reactive and negative power. This assertion assumes that Russian military is as sufficiently strong as it needs to be in order to guarantee its domestic sovereignty and to not be subjugated by other great power’s interests in the international context of post-Cold War, which features asymmetrical capabilities and the unipolarity, reducing Russian possibilities of action.
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Relações internacionais, Segurança internacional, Grandes potências, Rússia - história militar, International relations, International security, Great powers, Russia - military history