Impactos do Programa ABC de Crédito Rural na Sustentabilidade dos Sistemas Agrícolas de Produção no Estado de Minas Gerais
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2023-03-31
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Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
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Globalmente, a agricultura é responsável por 11%, 47% e 58% do total das emissões antrópicas de CO2, CH4 e N2O, respectivamente. No Brasil, as alterações no uso da terra e florestas são frequentemente responsáveis por mais de 70% das toneladas de CO2 equivalentes (tCO2eq.) emitidas. Buscando reverter este cenário o Brasil, em acordos internacionais firmados em 2009 e 2015, comprometeu-se a reduzir emissões de gases de efeito estufa em 38,9% até 2020, e recuperar 15 milhões de hectares de pastagens degradadas até 2030. Para cumprir essas metas, o governo federal criou, em 2011, o Programa Agricultura de Baixo Carbono (ABC), para financiar tecnologias de mitigação e adaptação às alterações climáticas. Utilizando como recorte espacial o estado de Minas Gerais, a hipótese desta pesquisa compreende que o crédito rural do Programa ABC transformou o uso e ocupação do solo e as emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEEs), incentivando sistemas agropecuários sustentáveis para reduzir a pegada de carbono da agricultura brasileira. Assim, utilizando diferentes recortes temporais, este trabalho teve como objetivo: (i) estabelecer relações entre o fluxo de crédito rural do Programa ABC e características agropecuárias dos municípios de Minas Gerais; e (ii) determinar o impacto do Programa na adopção de tecnologias de mitigação e uso do solo, bem como no CO2 equivalente (tCO2eq.) emitido pelos municípios. Este trabalho utilizou análises de estatística descritiva, regressão linear, correlação Spearman e teste de hipótese. Baseando-se em ferramentas e dados de sensoriamento remoto, valores e contratos do Programa ABC, dados do Censo Agropecuário de 2017 do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e estimativas de tCO2eq. Os resultados responderam o primeiro objetivo, demonstrando que o crédito é acessado principalmente por municípios com maiores concentrações de pastagens degradadas, seguido por municípios produtores de Silvicultura e Bovinos. Para o segundo objetivo, observou-se que o crédito do Programa impactou a redução de pastagens de intermediaria degradação, e causou o incremento de Bovinos e pastagens de boa qualidade. Entretanto, não foi observado impacto sobre as tCO2eq. emitidas pelos municípios em Minas Gerais. Concluiu-se que o acesso ao Programa teve um impacto significativo no uso e ocupação do solo através da adoção de métodos de produção agropecuário mais sustentáveis, entretanto, não foi observado impacto da redução de GEEs.
Globally, agriculture is responsible for 11%, 47% and 58% of total anthropogenic CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions, respectively. In Brazil, changes in land use and forests are often responsible for more than 70% of tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq.) emitted. Seeking to reverse this scenario, the Brazil in international agreements signed in 2009 and 2015, committed itself to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 38.9% by 2020, and recovering 15 million hectares of degraded pastures by 2030. In order to achieve these goals, the federal government created, in 2011, the Low Carbon Agriculture Program (ABC) to finance technologies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Using the state of Minas Gerais as a spatial cut, the hypothesis of this research understands that the rural credit of the ABC Program has transformed the use and occupation of the land and the emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), encouraging sustainable agricultural systems to reduce the footprint of carbon from Brazilian agriculture. Thus, using different time frames, this work aimed to: (i) establish relationships between the ABC Program rural credit flow and agricultural characteristics of the municipalities of Minas Gerais; and (ii) determine the Program's impact on the adoption of mitigation technologies and land use, as well as on CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq.) emitted by municipalities. This work used descriptive statistics analysis, linear regression, Spearman correlation and hypothesis test. Based on remote sensing tools and data, ABC Program values and contracts, data from the 2017 Agricultural Census by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and tCO2eq. estimates. The results responded to the first objective, demonstrating that credit is accessed mainly by municipalities with higher concentrations of degraded pastures, followed by municipalities that produce Silviculture and Bovine. For the second objective, it was observed that the Program's credit had an impact on the reduction of pastures with intermediate degradation and caused an increase in Cattle and good quality pastures. However, no impact on tCO2eq. emitted by municipalities in Minas Gerais was observed. It was concluded that access to the Program had a significant impact on land use and occupation through the adoption of more sustainable agricultural production methods, however, no impact was observed in the reduction of GHGs.
Globally, agriculture is responsible for 11%, 47% and 58% of total anthropogenic CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions, respectively. In Brazil, changes in land use and forests are often responsible for more than 70% of tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq.) emitted. Seeking to reverse this scenario, the Brazil in international agreements signed in 2009 and 2015, committed itself to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 38.9% by 2020, and recovering 15 million hectares of degraded pastures by 2030. In order to achieve these goals, the federal government created, in 2011, the Low Carbon Agriculture Program (ABC) to finance technologies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Using the state of Minas Gerais as a spatial cut, the hypothesis of this research understands that the rural credit of the ABC Program has transformed the use and occupation of the land and the emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), encouraging sustainable agricultural systems to reduce the footprint of carbon from Brazilian agriculture. Thus, using different time frames, this work aimed to: (i) establish relationships between the ABC Program rural credit flow and agricultural characteristics of the municipalities of Minas Gerais; and (ii) determine the Program's impact on the adoption of mitigation technologies and land use, as well as on CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq.) emitted by municipalities. This work used descriptive statistics analysis, linear regression, Spearman correlation and hypothesis test. Based on remote sensing tools and data, ABC Program values and contracts, data from the 2017 Agricultural Census by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and tCO2eq. estimates. The results responded to the first objective, demonstrating that credit is accessed mainly by municipalities with higher concentrations of degraded pastures, followed by municipalities that produce Silviculture and Bovine. For the second objective, it was observed that the Program's credit had an impact on the reduction of pastures with intermediate degradation and caused an increase in Cattle and good quality pastures. However, no impact on tCO2eq. emitted by municipalities in Minas Gerais was observed. It was concluded that access to the Program had a significant impact on land use and occupation through the adoption of more sustainable agricultural production methods, however, no impact was observed in the reduction of GHGs.
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Sensoriamento remoto, Políticas Públicas, Uso da Terra, Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Pastagens, Crédito Rural