As disputas geopolíticas e seus impactos sobre o agronegócio brasileiro no começo do século XXI
Data
2023-05-05
Autores
Tamarindo, Ubirajara Garcia Ferreira
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ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Os alimentos e os insumos agropecuários passaram a exercer nos últimos tempos cada vez mais a condição de instrumentos geopolíticos de poder nas relações entre os países. Nesse contexto, a presente pesquisa teve como objetivo investigar os principais desafios e oportunidades ao agronegócio brasileiro, decorrentes dos efeitos diretos ou colaterais das disputas geopolíticas no início do século XXI, em especial levadas a efeito por parte dos Estados Unidos. Efetivamente, as atuais disputas econômicas, tecnológicas e militares, especialmente contra a China e Rússia, como parte da agenda externa concorrencial norte-americana, possuem protagonismo nesse contexto, bem como estão modificando (a) a geografia e a dinâmica do comércio mundial, principalmente os custos de produção e de transação das cadeias alimentares e de suprimentos agropecuários; (b) o processo de globalização das economias — que estão ficando cada vez mais protecionistas e buscando autossuficiência —; (c) o livre comércio e, por consequência, (d) o modelo multilateral de negociações e resoluções de conflitos. E isso conduzido pelos Estados Unidos em um contexto, especialmente, de guerra híbrida concorrencial (lawfare), que, por sua vez, afeta, colateralmente, os interesses do agronegócio brasileiro, como é o caso (a) da China, maior parceiro econômico do Brasil, (b) da República Islâmica do Irã, importante parceiro econômico do agronegócio brasileiro e (c) da Rússia e Bielorrússia, dois dos principais fornecedores de fertilizantes (potássio) às lavouras nacionais. Nesse contexto, em resposta ao problema de pesquisa e às hipóteses levantadas, buscou-se demonstrar, analiticamente, que as disputas geopolíticas entre (a) Estados Unidos e China, (b) Rússia e Ucrânia, (c) Estados Unidos, União Europeia e Rússia e (d) China, Austrália e Canadá — que gravitam ao redor dos interesses da política externa norte-americana —, trouxeram novas oportunidades e desafios às cadeias alimentares e de suprimentos agropecuários, aos quais o agronegócio brasileiro, que possui economia globalizada, não está imune aos seus efeitos, mas contextualizado. E com o mundo caminhando para a divisão em dois grandes blocos geopolíticos entre Estados Unidos e China, o Brasil, pressionado, poderá em algum momento ter que tomar decisões difíceis no que concerne às relações econômicas com chineses e norte-americanos. Por tudo isso, o que se constatou é que mesmo pressionado geopoliticamente a tanto, o País deverá manter-se neutro no que concerne às coalizões lideradas por norte-americanos e chineses, tendo em vista que os países são parceiros fundamentais da economia brasileira. E tal posicionamento busca a defesa dos interesses nacionais, pois não haverá ganhadores em eventual afronta direta aos interesses de Estados Unidos ou China. Com isso, será fundamental ao Brasil acompanhar todos esses eventos geopolíticos de maneira pragmática e, ao mesmo tempo, diversificar, como medida de autopreservação, a sua pauta de clientes e de fornecedores de insumos agropecuários. E isso para diminuir a dependência atual das exportações à China e das importações de fertilizantes, em especial da Rússia e Bielorrússia. Além disso, o Brasil precisará desenvolver melhores relações comerciais tanto com a União Europeia-Reino Unido quanto com o Estados Unidos, visando ampliar suas exportações de produtos agropecuários de maior valor agregado. Por sua vez, os países da África Subsaariana, América Latina, Oriente Médio e Norte da África, principalmente os islâmicos, assim como a Índia — que caminha para se tornar o que a China é atualmente no âmbito de consumo e comércio mundial —, também oferecem oportunidades de maior inserção e cooperação comercial agropecuária com o Brasil. Observou-se, ainda, que o Brasil precisará incorporar cada vez mais sustentabilidade, eficiência, competitividade e valor aos seus processos e produtos agropecuários e agroindustriais, pois novos produtores e fornecedores mundiais estão sendo efetivamente desenvolvidos no contexto de todas essas disputas geopolíticas. Portanto, no futuro, poderão rivalizar com o Brasil as exportações em especial aos mercados da Ásia, Estados Unidos, Oriente Médio, União Europeia e África. Não obstante esses aspectos, que exigem atenção, todos esses eventos geopolíticos também trouxeram oportunidades estratégicas para o Brasil expandir sua pauta de exportação de produtos agropecuários, especialmente do complexo soja, milho, açúcar, café, proteínas animais (bovina, suína, frango, pescados, carnes processadas, gordura animal, ovos, couro e peles), produtos florestais, complexo sucroalcooleiro, algodão, frutas, fumo e laticínios. Entretanto, equivocada condução da política externa brasileira poderá provocar efeitos deletérios à economia nacional caso o Brasil resolva interferir em assuntos que seja desnecessário o alinhamento meramente ideológico ou desprovidos de substanciais contrapartidas aos seus interesses. A partir dessas premissas, este trabalho de doutoramento, realizado por meio de uma abordagem qualitativa e de revisão bibliográfica e documental, buscou comprovar a tese de que as cadeias mundiais de alimentos e de suprimentos, em detrimento da eficiência e competitividade do produto em si, estão sendo cada vez mais impactadas por arranjos geopolíticos. E, por consequência, as disputas geopolíticas no início do século XXI, em especial levadas a efeito por parte dos Estados Unidos, num contexto de guerra híbrida concorrencial, possuem enorme potencial de impactar — positiva ou negativamente — a geografia e o volume das exportações e importações do agronegócio brasileiro, que possui parte substancial de sua economia globalizada. E isso, notadamente, caso o Brasil não se mova de maneira estratégica e pragmática nesse tabuleiro geopolítico de comércio administrado que se tornaram as cadeias mundiais de alimentos e suprimentos agropecuários.
At the beginning of 21st century, food and agricultural inputs began to exercise even more the condition of geopolitical instruments of power in relations between countries. In this context, the present research aimed to investigate the main challenges and opportunities that are facing Brazilian agribusiness due to the side effects of the geopolitical disputes that are taking place in the scope of interference of the United States foreign policy. Effectively, the current economic, technological and military disputes, carried out by the United States and allies, especially against China and Russia, as part of their external competitive agenda, have a leading role in this context, as well as are modifying (a) the geography and the dynamics of world trade, especially the production and transaction costs of food and agricultural supply chains; (b) the process of globalization of economies — which are becoming increasingly protectionist and seeking self-sufficiency —; (c) free trade and, consequently, (d) the multilateral model of negotiations and conflict resolutions. And this is conducted by the United States in a context of hybrid competitive warfare (lawfare) that collaterally affects the interests of Brazilian agribusiness, as is the case (a) of China, Brazil's largest economic partner, (b) of the Islamic Republic of Iran, an important economic partner of Brazilian agribusiness and (c) Russia and Belarus, two of the main suppliers of fertilizers to national crops. In this context, the development of the chapters of this work sought to demonstrate, especially, that the geopolitical disputes between (a) United States and China, (b) Russia and Ukraine, (c) United States, European Union and Russia and (d) China, Australia and Canada — which gravitate around US foreign policy interests — brought new opportunities and challenges to food and agricultural supply chains, to which Brazilian agribusiness, which has a globalized economy, is not immune, but contextualized. And with the world moving towards division into two large geopolitical blocs between the United States and China, Brazil, under pressure, may at some point have to make difficult decisions regarding economic relations with the Chinese and Americans. For all these reasons, what was found is that even if geopolitically pressured to do so, the country should remain neutral with regard to the coalitions led by the United States and China, bearing in mind that both North Americans and Chinese are fundamental partners to the Brazilian economy. And such a position seeks to defend national interests, as there will be no winners in any direct affront to the interests of the United States or China. With this, it will be fundamental for Brazil to follow all these geopolitical events in a pragmatic way and, at the same time, to diversify, as a measure of self-preservation, its list of buyers and suppliers of agricultural inputs. And all this to reduce the current dependence on exports to China and imports of fertilizers, especially from Russia and Belarus. Brazil will also need to develop better trade relations both with the European Union-United Kingdom and with the United States, with a view to expanding its exports, especially agricultural products with higher added value. In turn, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, mainly the Islamic ones, as well as India — which is on its way to becoming what China is today in terms of consumption and world trade — also offer opportunities for greater insertion and agricultural trade cooperation with Brazil. In addition, Brazil will need to increasingly incorporate sustainability, efficiency, competitiveness and value into its agricultural and agro-industrial processes and products, as new global producers and suppliers are being effectively developed in the context of all these geopolitical disputes, so that in the future they will be able to rival Brazil in exports especially to markets in Asia, the United States, the Middle East, the European Union and Africa. Notwithstanding these aspects, which require attention, all these geopolitical events also brought to Brazil strategic opportunities to expand the export basket of Brazilian agricultural products, especially the soy complex, corn, sugar, coffee, animal proteins (beef, pork, chicken, fish, processed meats, animal fat, eggs, leather and skins), forest products, sugar and alcohol complex, cotton, fruits, tobacco and dairy products. However, misguided conduct of Brazilian foreign policy, by itself, could cause deleterious effects to the national economy if Brazil decides to interfere in matters that are unnecessary for merely ideological alignment or devoid of substantial counterpart to its interests. Based on these assumptions, this doctoral work, carried out through a qualitative approach and a bibliographical and documental review, sought to prove the thesis that global food and supply chains, to the detriment of the efficiency and competitiveness of the product itself, are being increasingly impacted by geopolitical arrangements. And, consequently, the geopolitical disputes that are taking place in a context of competitive hybrid warfare within the scope of US foreign policy interference, mainly against China and Russia, have enormous potential to impact — positively or negatively — the geography and volume of exports and imports of Brazilian agribusiness — which has a substantial part of its globalized economy — notably, if Brazil does not move in a strategic and pragmatic way in this geopolitical board of managed trade that have become the world chains of food and agricultural.
At the beginning of 21st century, food and agricultural inputs began to exercise even more the condition of geopolitical instruments of power in relations between countries. In this context, the present research aimed to investigate the main challenges and opportunities that are facing Brazilian agribusiness due to the side effects of the geopolitical disputes that are taking place in the scope of interference of the United States foreign policy. Effectively, the current economic, technological and military disputes, carried out by the United States and allies, especially against China and Russia, as part of their external competitive agenda, have a leading role in this context, as well as are modifying (a) the geography and the dynamics of world trade, especially the production and transaction costs of food and agricultural supply chains; (b) the process of globalization of economies — which are becoming increasingly protectionist and seeking self-sufficiency —; (c) free trade and, consequently, (d) the multilateral model of negotiations and conflict resolutions. And this is conducted by the United States in a context of hybrid competitive warfare (lawfare) that collaterally affects the interests of Brazilian agribusiness, as is the case (a) of China, Brazil's largest economic partner, (b) of the Islamic Republic of Iran, an important economic partner of Brazilian agribusiness and (c) Russia and Belarus, two of the main suppliers of fertilizers to national crops. In this context, the development of the chapters of this work sought to demonstrate, especially, that the geopolitical disputes between (a) United States and China, (b) Russia and Ukraine, (c) United States, European Union and Russia and (d) China, Australia and Canada — which gravitate around US foreign policy interests — brought new opportunities and challenges to food and agricultural supply chains, to which Brazilian agribusiness, which has a globalized economy, is not immune, but contextualized. And with the world moving towards division into two large geopolitical blocs between the United States and China, Brazil, under pressure, may at some point have to make difficult decisions regarding economic relations with the Chinese and Americans. For all these reasons, what was found is that even if geopolitically pressured to do so, the country should remain neutral with regard to the coalitions led by the United States and China, bearing in mind that both North Americans and Chinese are fundamental partners to the Brazilian economy. And such a position seeks to defend national interests, as there will be no winners in any direct affront to the interests of the United States or China. With this, it will be fundamental for Brazil to follow all these geopolitical events in a pragmatic way and, at the same time, to diversify, as a measure of self-preservation, its list of buyers and suppliers of agricultural inputs. And all this to reduce the current dependence on exports to China and imports of fertilizers, especially from Russia and Belarus. Brazil will also need to develop better trade relations both with the European Union-United Kingdom and with the United States, with a view to expanding its exports, especially agricultural products with higher added value. In turn, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, mainly the Islamic ones, as well as India — which is on its way to becoming what China is today in terms of consumption and world trade — also offer opportunities for greater insertion and agricultural trade cooperation with Brazil. In addition, Brazil will need to increasingly incorporate sustainability, efficiency, competitiveness and value into its agricultural and agro-industrial processes and products, as new global producers and suppliers are being effectively developed in the context of all these geopolitical disputes, so that in the future they will be able to rival Brazil in exports especially to markets in Asia, the United States, the Middle East, the European Union and Africa. Notwithstanding these aspects, which require attention, all these geopolitical events also brought to Brazil strategic opportunities to expand the export basket of Brazilian agricultural products, especially the soy complex, corn, sugar, coffee, animal proteins (beef, pork, chicken, fish, processed meats, animal fat, eggs, leather and skins), forest products, sugar and alcohol complex, cotton, fruits, tobacco and dairy products. However, misguided conduct of Brazilian foreign policy, by itself, could cause deleterious effects to the national economy if Brazil decides to interfere in matters that are unnecessary for merely ideological alignment or devoid of substantial counterpart to its interests. Based on these assumptions, this doctoral work, carried out through a qualitative approach and a bibliographical and documental review, sought to prove the thesis that global food and supply chains, to the detriment of the efficiency and competitiveness of the product itself, are being increasingly impacted by geopolitical arrangements. And, consequently, the geopolitical disputes that are taking place in a context of competitive hybrid warfare within the scope of US foreign policy interference, mainly against China and Russia, have enormous potential to impact — positively or negatively — the geography and volume of exports and imports of Brazilian agribusiness — which has a substantial part of its globalized economy — notably, if Brazil does not move in a strategic and pragmatic way in this geopolitical board of managed trade that have become the world chains of food and agricultural.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Geopolítica, Estados Unidos, Agronegócio, Brasil, Impactos comerciais, Geopolitics, U.S., Agribusiness, Brazil, Commercial impacts
Como citar
TAMARINDO, Ubirajara Garcia Ferreira. As disputas geopolíticas e seus impactos sobre o agronegócio brasileiro no começo do século XXI. Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), 2023.