Selection of nonlinear mixed models for growth curves of dairy buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis)

Abstract

The determination of livestock growth patterns is important for meat or milk production systems, and nonlinear models are used to summarize and interpret the information. The aim of this study was to more accurately estimate growth curve parameters in buffalo cows by evaluating and selecting nonlinear mixed models that employ different types of residuals and include or not contemporary groups (CG) as a covariate. Weight records from 720 animals obtained over a period of 60 months were used. The growth curves were fit using nonlinear mixed-effects models. The Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models were evaluated. Modelling residuals using four structures (constant, combined, exponential and proportional) and the inclusion or not of CG in the models were also evaluated. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to select the model. In addition to estimating the parameters of the nonlinear growth models and their correlations, the instantaneous growth rate and inflection point were obtained. The Bertalanffy model with a combined residual structure and CG exhibited the lowest AIC and BIC values. Asymptotic weight (A) estimates ranged from 621.8 to 742.1 kg, and the maturity rate (k) ranged from 0.068 to 0.115 kg/month. The correlation between A and k ranged from -0.32 to -0.82 among the models evaluated. The selection criteria indicated that the Bertalanffy model was the most suitable for growth curve analysis in buffaloes.