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Climate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazil

dc.contributor.authorLorençone, Pedro Antonio
dc.contributor.authorde Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorLorençone, João Antonio
dc.contributor.authorBotega, Guilherme Torsoni
dc.contributor.authorLima, Rafael Fausto
dc.contributor.authorde Souza Rolim, Glauco [UNESP]
dc.contributor.institutionIFMS-Federal Instituteof Education
dc.contributor.institutionIFSULDEMINAS-Federal Institute
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-29T12:53:24Z
dc.date.available2023-07-29T12:53:24Z
dc.date.issued2023-01-01
dc.description.abstractCoffee production has a large share in Brazilian agribusiness and a cultural and social importance in the country. Worldwide, Brazil is the largest producer of arabica coffee and the second largest of canephora species. In 2020, national production was 14.3 million bags of canephora coffee. Few studies on canephora coffee adaptation to climate changes can be found in the literature. Thus, our goal was to identify areas suitable for Coffea canephora cultivation in Brazil under CMIP-5 climate change framework. The study was carried out for the entire country using data on average air temperature data for the entire year, November, and the coldest month, as well as average annual accumulated water deficit for the period of 1960–2020. These data were gathered from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil-INMET (Brazil 1992). Furthermore, BCC-CSM1.1 climate model was used at 125 × 125 km resolution to simulate future climate using WorldClim 2 data for 2041–2080, in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Potential climate changes can negatively impact canephora coffee plantations in all CMIP5 RCP scenarios studied. The BCC-CSM1.1 scenarios showed a 65% reduction in total areas suitable for coffee cultivation in Brazil. Rondônia and Bahia were states with the greatest impact of climate change since they had the largest reduction in areas suitable for canephora coffee growth. Currently, both states are major C. canephora producers and can therefore directly compromise regional economy. Thermal excess was the most common class for future scenarios, averaging 56.76% of the entire country.en
dc.description.affiliationIFMS-Federal Instituteof Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso Do Sul-Campus of Naviraí
dc.description.affiliationScience and Technology of Sul de IFSULDEMINAS-Federal Institute, Minas Gerais-Campus of Muzambinho
dc.description.affiliationDepartment of Exact Sciences School of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences São Paulo State University (Unesp), Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane S/N, SP
dc.description.affiliationUnespDepartment of Exact Sciences School of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences São Paulo State University (Unesp), Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane S/N, SP
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0
dc.identifier.citationEnvironment, Development and Sustainability.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0
dc.identifier.issn1573-2975
dc.identifier.issn1387-585X
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85148895362
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/246890
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironment, Development and Sustainability
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectClimate zoning
dc.subjectData interpolation
dc.subjectMitigation
dc.titleClimate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazilen
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-4561-6760[2]

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