Estimation of non-technical loss rates by regions

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dc.contributor.authorVentura, Lucas
dc.contributor.authorFelix, Gustavo Estevo
dc.contributor.authorVargas, Renzo
dc.contributor.authorFaria, Lucas Teles
dc.contributor.authorMelo, Joel David
dc.contributor.institutionFederal University of ABC
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-07T20:18:31Z
dc.date.available2023-11-07T20:18:31Z
dc.date.issued2023-07-18
dc.description.abstractIdentifying vulnerable regions to non-technical losses allows more assertive combat against them. In this context, this paper presents a spatiotemporal methodology composed of two modules, spatial and temporal, to assist distribution companies in action planning to decrease the rates of non-technical losses by region. The spatial module contains a neighborhood structure based on the similarity among small regions named ‘‘neighborhood by the similarity of attributes’’, which improves the characterization of non-technical losses actions performed by end-consumers. That neighborhood structure is incorporated as an input parameter into a hierarchical spatial autoregressive regression model to represent the relationships between inhabitants. On the other hand, the temporal module uses a linear mixed-effects model to consider future values that are subject to the actions of consumers or distribution companies. The proposed methodology is applied to a medium-sized city with approximately 200,000 inhabitants, considering the inspections carried out by a Brazilian distribution utility. The proposal identified the future non-technical loss state in all the city’s regions with values greater than 69% of the success rate in identifying NTL to residential, commercial, and industrial consumer classes.en
dc.description.sponsorshipPró-Reitoria de Pesquisa (PROPe UNESP)
dc.description.sponsorshipPró-Reitoria de Pós-Graduação (PROPG UNESP)
dc.description.sponsorshipFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
dc.description.sponsorshipIdUNESP PROPG/PROPe N◦ 04/2022 Project Number 4289
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCNPq: 408898/2021-6
dc.description.sponsorshipIdFAPESP: 2021/08832-1
dc.description.sponsorshipIdFAPESP: 2019/04417-0
dc.description.versionPreprint
dc.identifier.citationVENTURA, L.; FELIX, G. E.; VARGAS, R.; FARIA, L. T.; MELO, J. D. Estimation of non-technical loss rates by regions, Electric Power Systems Research, Lausanne, v. 223, p. 109685, 2023.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2023.109685
dc.identifier.issn0378-7796
dc.identifier.latteshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0410725069211275
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2287-1571
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11449/251256
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.ispartofElectric Power Systems Research
dc.rights.accessRightsAcesso aberto
dc.subjectElectric power distributionpt
dc.subjectNon-technical lossespt
dc.subjectSpatial data analysispt
dc.titleEstimation of non-technical loss rates by regions
dc.title.alternativeEstimação de perdas não-técnicas por regiõespt
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.campusUniversidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Faculdade de Engenharia, Ilha Solteira
unesp.departmentEngenharia Elétrica - FEISpt

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Ilha Solteira - FEIS - Faculdade de Engenharia