Economic and risk evaluation of fertilizer application systems in the sugar cane crop: Fixed rate by average and variable rate technology

Abstract

Brazil is the world's largest producer of sugarcane, accounting for more than 40% of the world's sugar cane supply. The Brazilian competitiveness in the production of sugar cane is related to edaphic-climate factors and the intensive technological development that contributed to the increase of productivity and / or cost reduction. There is an ample literature on the economic analysis of sugarcane production; however, there is a theoretical-practical gap in the economic evaluation of different management systems in the multiple activities inherent to the production of sugarcane. This study positions itself in this gap by analyzing comparatively two different fertilization systems, whose impacts are representative for an activity that represents more than 30% of the sugarcane planting costs. The variable rate system is a breakthrough in this activity, enhanced with precision technology in agriculture. For this, a single case study was used based on the analysis of recommendation maps of inputs in an area of 80 hectares in the region of Ribeirao Preto, in the interior of the state of Sao Paulo, and the research was conducted on an exploratory basis. The data refer to the 2011-2015 harvest, and the comparative analysis was based on the discounted cash flow methodology associated with the Monte Carlo simulation using the investment selection techniques: NPV, IRR, Payback and Index of Profitability. The results showed that costs with fertilizers, applied using the average fixed rate system were R $ 862.62, while using the variable rate system they reached R $ 342.46, a difference of 251.89% between the two systems. Also, the estimates and parameters obtained through the Monte Carlo simulation indicated a greater economic viability with the application of fertilizer using the variable rate system.