Agroclimatic zoning for bananas under climate change in Brazil

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses in plants and affects yield. Therefore, we sought to carry out a study on future changes in the agroclimatic conditions of banana cultivation in Brazil. The current agroclimatic zoning was carried out with data obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology related to mean air temperature, annual rainfall, and soil texture data in Brazil. The global climate model BCC-CSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model, version 1.1), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the period 2050 (2041–2060) and 2070 (2061–2080), obtained through the CHELSA V1.2 platform, was chosen for the climate projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Matrix images at a depth of 5–15 cm, obtained through the product of the SoilGrids system, were used for the texture data. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to construct the maps. RESULTS: Areas favorable to the crop plantation were classified as suitable when air temperature TAIR was between 20 and 29 °C, annual rainfall RANNUAL between 1200 and 1900 mm, and soil clay content CSOIL between 30 and 55%. Subsequently, the information was reclassified, summarizing the classes into preferential, recommended, little recommended, and not recommended. The current scenario shows a preferential class of 8.1%, recommended of 44.6%, little recommended of 47.1%, and not recommended of 0.1% for the Brazilian territory. CONCLUSION: The results show no drastic changes in the total area regarding the classes, but there is a migration from these zones; that is, from tropical to subtropical and temperate regions. RCP 8.5–2070 (2061–2080) showed trends with negative impacts on arable areas for banana cultivation at the end of the century. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.