Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in the Metropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba-SP simulated by climate models from CMIP6

Nenhuma Miniatura disponível




Bosco, Ricardo Brambila [UNESP]
Valverde, María Cleofé

Título da Revista

ISSN da Revista

Título de Volume



This work aimed to investigate the temperature and precipitation changes simulated by CMIP6 high-resolution climate models (CNRM-CM6-1-HR, EC-EARTH3 and MPI-ESM1-HR) for two emission scenarios (SSP2 4.5, SSP5 8.5) in the Metropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba in the State of São Paulo. The region was divided into four sub-regions: Sub-region 1 – São José dos Campos, Sub-region 2 – Taubaté, Sub-region 3 – Guaratinguetá and Sub-region 4 – Cruzeiro. Based on the observed data (1961-2014), Sub-region 1 was the hottest and least rainy concerning the other sub-regions. According to the Man-Kendall test, the interannual variability of precipitation and temperature showed, for the four sub-regions, significant trends of decrease and increased, respectively. For future projections, there was consensus in the climate models used, for significant trends in temperature increase, considering the period 2015-2100, similar to that observed. Sub-region 3 – Guaratinguetá should present the most significant warming of 4.8°C, concerning the simulated climatology, for the most extreme scenario SSP5 8.5. About precipitation, was no consensus by the models, and only the MPI-ESM1-HR model showed a significant tendency to increase in the period 2041-2070, in Sub-regions 1 and 4 and for the SSP2 4.5 scenario. As for the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the significant increasing trends were only for 2071-2100 and sub-regions 1, 3, and 4. It is noteworthy that the simulation of precipitation is still a considerable challenge uncertainty is high, and validation of climate models is always recommended.



Climate change, CMIP6, Extremes, Metropolitan Region of Vale do Paraíba

Como citar

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica, v. 15, n. 3, p. 1621-1638, 2022.