The consequences of debris flows in Brazil: a historical analysis based on recorded events in the last 100 years

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dc.contributor.authorCabral, Victor [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorReis, Fábio [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorVeloso, Vinicius [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorCorrea, Claudia [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorKuhn, Caiubi [UNESP]
dc.contributor.authorZarfl, Christiane
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversity of Tübingen
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-29T13:32:33Z
dc.date.available2023-07-29T13:32:33Z
dc.date.issued2023-03-01
dc.description.abstractThis study aims at providing an overview of the socioeconomic consequences that debris-flow events have caused in Brazil, positioning the country in the international scenario and identifying areas where targeted actions are necessary. The analysis is conducted by calculating the debris-flow mortality rate (MR) and by using the so-called F-N plots (frequency of events that have caused N or more fatalities vs. the number of fatalities), based on a compilation of debris-flow-related disasters from 1920 to 2021. In total, 45 debris-flow events were documented in the considered period, responsible for 5771 fatalities and more than 5.5 billion USD in economic losses. The Serra do Mar Mountain Range is the main site of reported debris-flow occurrences (64.5%), followed by Serra da Mantiqueira (13.3%), and Serra Geral (13.3%). Southeast Brazil (SEB) is the region most affected by debris-flow events, due to the highest population density and the development of several cities in hilly areas, such as Petrópolis (Rio de Janeiro state) and Cubatão (São Paulo state). The debris-flow MR of SEB is higher than any other region in Brazil, pushing the national debris-flow MR upwards, and the F-N curve of SEB consolidates the region as the one with the highest risk to the phenomenon, indicating a higher probability of fatal events. The F-N plots further show that debris-flow events in Brazil represent a higher societal risk than in countries such as China, Japan and Italy. While there are differences in country size and the scale effect should be considered, these results highlight the urgent need for investments in disaster prevention and preparedness programs.en
dc.description.affiliationApplied Geology Department Institute of Geosciences and Exact Sciences - IGCE São Paulo State University – UNESP, Av. 24A, Rio Claro
dc.description.affiliationGeo- Und Umweltforschungszentrum (GUZ) University of Tübingen, Schnarrenbergstraße 94 – 96
dc.description.affiliationCenter for Geosciences Applied to Petroleum (UNESPetro) São Paulo State University – UNESP, Av. 24A, Rio Claro
dc.description.affiliationUnespApplied Geology Department Institute of Geosciences and Exact Sciences - IGCE São Paulo State University – UNESP, Av. 24A, Rio Claro
dc.description.affiliationUnespCenter for Geosciences Applied to Petroleum (UNESPetro) São Paulo State University – UNESP, Av. 24A, Rio Claro
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
dc.description.sponsorshipEberhard Karls Universität Tübingen
dc.description.sponsorshipCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
dc.description.sponsorshipIdCAPES: 005
dc.format.extent511-529
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01984-7
dc.identifier.citationLandslides, v. 20, n. 3, p. 511-529, 2023.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10346-022-01984-7
dc.identifier.issn1612-5118
dc.identifier.issn1612-510X
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85143891340
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11449/248029
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofLandslides
dc.sourceScopus
dc.subjectDebris flows
dc.subjectF-N curve
dc.subjectLandslide database
dc.subjectMortality rate
dc.subjectNatural disasters
dc.titleThe consequences of debris flows in Brazil: a historical analysis based on recorded events in the last 100 yearsen
dc.typeArtigo
unesp.author.orcid0000-0002-9910-0508[1]

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Artigos - Geologia Aplicada - IGCE
Artigos - Petrologia e Metalogenia - IGCE