Climate change scenarios and effects on the enthalpy as a biometeorological index

Abstract

This article aimed to estimate enthalpy values (kJ/kg dry air) using the temperature increases of the scenarios recommended by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to information from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The global temperature in 2081-2100 is estimated to be 1 degrees C to 1.8 degrees C higher than between 1850 and 1900 in the best emissions scenario and 3.3 degrees C to 5.7 degrees C higher in the worst scenario. The temperature increases were made based on the average and maximum temperatures of the period. A historical series of 5 years from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) was used to calculate the monthly average (h(med)) and maximum average (h(mmax)) enthalpy of 5 Brazilian cities, highlights in animal production in Brazil (laying hens, broilers, pigs, beef cattle and dairy cattle). The results indicate a progressive increase in the thermal load of the environment over the years and peaks of air enthalpy outside the thermal comfort ranges for all production systems, with alerts for laying hens and broilers with alarming situations of thermal stress due to heat for most of the year.