Extrapolação e bolhas financeiras
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Data
2020-06-26
Autores
Marques Júnior, Eduardo José [UNESP]
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Editor
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Resumo
Este trabalho busca mostrar os efeitos de um viés emocional no comportamento do agente investidor no mercado de ações com as abordagens agent-based e de bolhas financeiras. Além de mostrar o que são os modelos, quais são suas colaborações e métodos. Com o auxílio do software MatLab e lógica de programação, foi encontrado o preço de equilíbrio, a taxa de retorno e as demandas de ações de cada agente no mercado e obtivemos a análise do volume de negociação dos agentes em diferentes períodos da bolha financeira, concluindo que quando o preço aumenta, os agentes fundamentalistas deixam o mercado, fazendo com que somente extrapoladores ou grafistas negociem e consequentemente o volume de negócios diminuem e vice-versa quando os preços tendem a cair. Também foi analisado o efeito do viés aversão à perda nos grafistas e encontrado suas conclusões.
This work seeks to show the effects of an emotional bias on the behavior of the investing agent in the stock market with the agent-based and financial bubble approaches. In addition to showing what the models are, what are their collaborations and methods. With the aid of MatLab software and programming logic, the equilibrium price, the rate of return and the demands of shares of each agent in the market were found and we obtained an analysis of the trading volume of agents in different periods of the financial bubble, concluding that when the price increases, fundamentalist agents leave the market, causing only extrapolators or graphic designers to negotiate and consequently the volume of business decreases and vice versa when prices tend to fall. We also analyzed the effect of loss aversion bias on graphic designers and found their conclusions.
This work seeks to show the effects of an emotional bias on the behavior of the investing agent in the stock market with the agent-based and financial bubble approaches. In addition to showing what the models are, what are their collaborations and methods. With the aid of MatLab software and programming logic, the equilibrium price, the rate of return and the demands of shares of each agent in the market were found and we obtained an analysis of the trading volume of agents in different periods of the financial bubble, concluding that when the price increases, fundamentalist agents leave the market, causing only extrapolators or graphic designers to negotiate and consequently the volume of business decreases and vice versa when prices tend to fall. We also analyzed the effect of loss aversion bias on graphic designers and found their conclusions.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Modelos ABM, Finanças comportamentais, Extrapolação, Aversão à perda, ABM models, Behavior finance, Extrapolation, Loss aversion